When will we be able to reverse 10 years of aging?

NickOttens

When do you believe that a biological age reduction of at least 10 years will be achieved and verified in a clinical trial?

Select the year that is closest to your estimate.

JoseCordeiro

2029

According to my friend Ray Kurweil, we will reach Longevity Escape Velocity, the Methuselarity, by 2029...

marz62

2029

That's very interesting, as this was my guess...but it was partly a humorous guess (i.e., When? Ten years from now! etc.)

marz62

2029

My rationale: the perfecting of CRISPR (all Cas versions including RNA-based forms) and its merging with cellular reprogramming techniques (e.g. iPSC tech) will likely be achieved in the next decade, given the current pace of research in these fields.

NickOttens

@erinyelland, @ayotopoulos, @hlyoungs, @kolyazak, @yafeng, so far our members are saying we'll be able to achieve 10 years of age reversal around the years 2026-2029. Do you agree? Please vote in our poll and feel free to elaborate in a comment.

This poll is part of our Age Reversal Prize Design. We're thinking of designing a prize competition that would challenge teams to reduce people's age by 5 to 10 years. We want to get a sense of when age reversal of that magnitude might be achieved without an XPRIZE competition in order to determine whether that would be too audacious or not audacious enough. Click here to learn more about the overall prize design, which is sponsored by Michael Antonov and Sergey Young.

stephaniel

2029

I think we need to take into account that due to world events, focus on ambitious R&D projects will likely intensify post-2025. I think it will take about 5 years of ambitious, stable, well-funded R&D to pinpoint the factors able to reverse aging, and how to use them practically. But it's unrealistic to think that level of R&D can get funded or get adequate attention now, in the midst of more pressing issues like pandemic/economy/geopolitics. So I voted 2029.

Roey

2026

2026
My thinking is that in this competition (probably to be run between ~2021 - ~2024) we'll demonstrate a 5-10 age reversal. By 2026 we'll probably already have the combination therapy to rejuvenate at least some tissues (heart, blood, liver, etc.) by ten years.

NickOttens

@AlexandraW, @Natasha, @Living100, @Jun Suto, @mspar, @pspiegel, when do you think we'll be able to achieve 10 years of age reversal?

We're currently designing an XPRIZE Age Reversal, which is the first prize design to come out of the Future of Longevity Impact Roadmap to which you contributed last year. We would welcome your input on this exciting next step in XPRIZE's longevity work!

In order to decide how many years of age reversal we should challenge teams competing in this prize to achieve, we first need to know how far the field is likely to advance without an XPRIZE. Hence this poll.

AlexandraW

Later than 2041

A lot of medical innovation might take a back seat to covid19 now.

erinyelland

Later than 2041

I agree with Alexandra W. - so much R&D is going to be redirected because of COVID. We're already seeing transitions in funding and we're still in the midst of it all! With succinct focus, however, progress can be made!

DidierC

Later than 2041

Of course I would love to see things going faster. But let's be honest, without radical changes in medical research, we are not even close from being able to stop aging. Maximal lifespan is 122 years for humans since 1997.Maximal lifespan is about 4 years for mice since 2004. And concerning average lifespan, progress is slow in most countries where people live already long lives and there is even stagnation in some countries (US). And clinical tests for longevity are almost non-existent.

Roey

2026

erinyelland wrote: »

I agree with Alexandra W. - so much R&D is going to be redirected because of COVID. We're already seeing transitions in funding and we're still in the midst of it all! With succinct focus, however, progress can be made!

@erinyelland , @AlexandraW - I'd like to challenge your thinking on the subject. We know that COVID-19 largely impacts the elderly population, and what's more - even when there's a vaccine, older adults with weaker immune systems will not necessarily develop the necessary antibodies.
These aspects of the pandemic make me think that funds may actually be rerouted toward rejuvenation of immune systems - which would be a great contribution to longevity sciences and practice.
What do you think?

Roey

2026

DidierC wrote: »

Of course I would love to see things going faster. But let's be honest, without radical changes in medical research, we are not even close from being able to stop aging. Maximal lifespan is 122 years for humans since 1997.Maximal lifespan is about 4 years for mice since 2004. And concerning average lifespan, progress is slow in most countries where people live already long lives and there is even stagnation in some countries (US). And clinical tests for longevity are almost non-existent.

@DidierC - I definitely agree with that, but would like to delve deeper: we're not actually talking about extending maximal human lifespan in this project. Obviously, the science is not there yet. However, we are focusing on extending healthspan via age reversal of critical tissues and organs. I think that's actually quite possible, even at the current state of our knowledge.

DidierC

Later than 2041

Thanks Roey for your feedback. For me to reverse 10 years of aging means that the concerned people will live 10 years more than the normal lifespan now. I was speaking about maximal lifespan among other things because the difference between the average lifespan and the maximal lifespan is decreasing.

I will take for example women in my country Belgium: the maximal lifespan is 112 years, the average lifespan is 83 years (and the median lifespan is even higher). 10 years later, sadly most women are dead (I think about 90 % of women die before). So you need a big progress to change this.

Of course, you could say: all I want is to change the physical state of people aged, for example, 60 is the new 50. But if it is working only during a limited time and the people do not live (much) longer, it is in my opinion no real rejuvenation. And of course, it is because it is complicated that we have to be very active/passionate/... to make rejuvenation and healthy lifespan possible for those who need it first (70, 80 years and more)!

AlexandraW

Later than 2041

Good thinking, Roey! Very interesting discussion!
Since COVID-19 seems to be a disease that brutalizes the immune system (like HIV), longevity work may in fact benefit a great deal from what is learned about T-cells, for example, in the current / near futures studies. If there is a breakthrough to treat the depleted immune system of COVID patients, it could certainly have applications to extending the lifespan, for example, since aging depletes immune responses.
There is also probably a lot to be learned from asymptomatic carriers in this regard, as well.

Roey wrote: »

erinyelland wrote: »

I agree with Alexandra W. - so much R&D is going to be redirected because of COVID. We're already seeing transitions in funding and we're still in the midst of it all! With succinct focus, however, progress can be made!

@erinyelland , @AlexandraW - I'd like to challenge your thinking on the subject. We know that COVID-19 largely impacts the elderly population, and what's more - even when there's a vaccine, older adults with weaker immune systems will not necessarily develop the necessary antibodies.
These aspects of the pandemic make me think that funds may actually be rerouted toward rejuvenation of immune systems - which would be a great contribution to longevity sciences and practice.
What do you think?

NickOttens

@Alex9933, @katebatz, @Alex, @sbohle, @lbratkovich, I'd like to invite you to join the discussion and vote in our poll as well.

We're now designing an XPRIZE Age Reversal which will seek to reverse biological aging by X number of years. To help us figure out what's an audacious but realistic goal, we want to know when 10 years of age reversal is likely to be achieved without an XPRIZE.

What do you think?

techspeaker

2029

I voted for 2029 but it is more wishful thinking than anything else and based a little on Ray Kurzweil’s statements. We need a lot more in the way of scientific achievements for this to be a realistic goal.

mashizaq

2032

Technology is changing on a daily basis. If the project is approved, 10 years would be good enough to run trials and make improvements where necessary before implementing this first hand.

KamalMohan

Never

I think never, It is possible only when we find a cure to cancer. We age because of cell division and reversing it is like reversing those cells which are divided and that's the cure to cancer