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Food security, agricultural systems and impacts on conflict and migration
timsilman
Posts: 58 XPRIZE
I posted some thoughts on the issue of food security and migration in a different discussion but I wanted to start a separate thread to discuss the issue at a broader level.
My earlier comments referenced the impact of drought (driven by climate change) and the resulting impact on agriculture in Syria being a driver of the civil war in that region. (Underlying research on it is here).
I'm curious if the community can weigh in on two things:
1) what are some other examples of agricultural disruptions driving migration and/or conflict?
2) what are regions that may be particularly susceptible to this phenomenon in the future? hypothetically I could imagine Kashmir as one region if it is faced with a major disruption to farming patterns and systems (such as extreme weather events), given the history of conflict there and ongoing tension and the high proportion of Jammu and Kashmir residents who are involved in agricultural activities (I saw 80% as a quoted figure during some scanning).
on the latter point, it is possible that the causality could go both ways - in the Kashmir example, i assumed changes to agricultural systems would beget conflict; the reverse could also be true.
curious about other examples, as well as the potential scope of the problem (which might be the biggest issue of all)
My earlier comments referenced the impact of drought (driven by climate change) and the resulting impact on agriculture in Syria being a driver of the civil war in that region. (Underlying research on it is here).
I'm curious if the community can weigh in on two things:
1) what are some other examples of agricultural disruptions driving migration and/or conflict?
2) what are regions that may be particularly susceptible to this phenomenon in the future? hypothetically I could imagine Kashmir as one region if it is faced with a major disruption to farming patterns and systems (such as extreme weather events), given the history of conflict there and ongoing tension and the high proportion of Jammu and Kashmir residents who are involved in agricultural activities (I saw 80% as a quoted figure during some scanning).
on the latter point, it is possible that the causality could go both ways - in the Kashmir example, i assumed changes to agricultural systems would beget conflict; the reverse could also be true.
curious about other examples, as well as the potential scope of the problem (which might be the biggest issue of all)
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The fighting is fierce and is also worsened by tribal lines (which also often involve religious differences) and is currently causing both disruption and migration. So we have an example where all these dynamics combine: you have an effect from climate change, worsened by poor/no effective response by local governments (little to no countermeasures), which worsens the socioeconomic situation (less fertile land available means prospect of famine/poverty), which in turn causes conflict. In turn conflict makes it even harder to employ effective countermeasures for climate change effects and worsens the socioeconomic situation there and in nearby areas, which in turn leads to more fighting for local areas. It's a sort of spiral, where multipled dynamics actually reinforce each other - including demography, which for Nigeria (and not only Nigeria) will be another issue.
The whole Sahel area is like this, so that makes an example of area where future trends will be dictated by these dynamics too.
Thank you both for starting a conversation about conflict and agriculture! I am personally very passionate about understanding and analyzing the impacts of conflict on people's lives and looking at this from the agriculture lens is quite new to me.
Another clear example is Myanmar, which is on the verge of intensified conflicts THIS WEEK due to land ‘reform’ policies.
Agriculture is the backbone of Myanmar’s economy contributing to almost 40% of its GDP and employing 70% of the labor force (FAO). Myanmar also happens to be home to the world’s longest running civil war.
Ever since political and economic restrictions on Myanmar were lifted in 2011, the government’s reform efforts have often fueled internal conflicts instead of making them better. Agricultural ‘reform’ is no different.
According to a recent amendment of the Vacant, Fallow, and Virgin Land Management law, millions of people now have until March 11, 2019 to obtain permits allowing them to stay on their historically owned lands. There are concerns that the amended law violates formal and informal current peace efforts and ceasefire agreements all over Myanmar. If/when millions fail to obtain permits, all their land will automatically belong to the state.
What will the state do with all this land? agricultural concessions i.e. land grabbing. That means that the government will sell or lease large pieces of land to transnational companies and/or governments.
The effects: land insecurity, displacement, a transition from land ownership to (often) exploitative employment on large plantations, depletion of natural resources, and more and more conflict.
in your example do you suspect that ongoing effects of climate change will continue to make this dynamic worse in the region, potentially affecting other ethnic groups and areas?
are these "reforms" being implemented across Myanmar or only the conflict zones in the East, North, and West (e.g. Kachin, Shan, Rakhine, etc.)? if the purpose is land grabbing then it would seem to apply mainly to territory that the government controls, i.e. not in conflict zones? Does that mean it is only indirectly related to the current civil war?
Also, migration from rural areas to urban areas is another issue - rural areas have less to offer, while big cities have a greater lure, even if they then are unable to sustain such a massive population increase, which in turn creates slums.
For farming, I feel this has multiple effects: fertile areas are subject to either fighting or depopulation (or both), which decreases use and this, in turn, makes it harder to increase its use and/or productivity.
but then again it's the entire point of this exercise - to unpack the macro and micro trends, understand some of the key influences, and then understand how those coalesce into a series of grand challenges. from there, we try to think outside the box about breakthroughs that solve those challenges. lots to chew on here! thanks again for your contribution.
It is important to note as already stated that Farmers/herdsmen crisis is being fought on fault lines that go beyond the issue of climate change with the injection of religious and ethnic differences helping to further exacerbate the situation. There is a need for the Nigerian government at the Federal and state levels to manage the situation better
Source: https://fse.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/warming_increases_risk_of_civil_war_in_africa